Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that split the country and caused turmoil, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the political, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in academia but hardly any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author supports unity or the status quo. Each writes two pieces that strive for neutrality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and societal figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments range over identity markers, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," stated the writer. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the idea that there could be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they favour unity but refuse increased taxation or adopting a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid perspectives, he said. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will eventually be defeated but both parties has got valuable insights to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
